has the apple fallen off the tree?

invest for the long term... Apple will be fine.

another view: http://www.imore.com/should-it-bother-investor-apple-stock-g...

Apple has been inovative and a market leader over the past 10 years or so, but competition and copy cats have flooded the market.

If Apple continues to make incremental improvements to their existing products I think their stock price will continue to decline before it stabilizes.

If they continue to innovate and define new markets their stock may continue to rise.

I just wish I bought some shares back in '98 when they hit a low of $4.

Apple is making inroads into Enterprise computing with iPads... and they lead the Tablet sector... and iPhones are taking over for Blackberrys in a lot of places... don't write them off.

I want to buy what you are saying but to what you attribute the current price drop (forget the last 2 days)?

They have hit the market with 3 brand new products and the stock price drop doesn't jive with the acceptance we see in the store, what concern me is what are the investors seeing that the users don't.

I am not writing off Apple by a long shot I think their incredible contribution has run it's course. The competitive advantage that their innovation afforded them is passing.

I believe it was a financial reporting that caused the slump in the price. I believe Apple met their estimates rather than exceeding them. Investors might see that as an early warning sign and cash in on the profit they have gained on the way up.

(Again, free advice/commentary)

Just tagging today's price and see if your long term advice pans out.

Apple has a large loyal customer base but to sustain and grow the stock price they need to attract many more new customers.

The problem I'm afraid is as you stated their competitive advantage, other tablet and phone makers are grabbing many of the new customers they need to continue growing.

I have used a Iphone from the start and just switched to the Samsung Galaxy s3 and its a much better toy than the Iphone in my OPINION. It does more has more and is bigger. The Iphone was the big dog on the block but now they have competition and thats good for us.

[/quote]
Apple has a large loyal customer base but to sustain and grow the stock price they need to attract many more new customers.

The problem I'm afraid is as you stated their competitive advantage, other tablet and phone makers are grabbing many of the new customers they need to continue growing.
[/quote]

I think Apple's stock market value is suffering from "over-expectation" and has become a victim of it's own success. The company has done so well with iPhone/iPad releases that anything less than record-setting sales is (almost) viewed as a FAILURE.

Perception seems to be a big driver in the stock market. But I think Apple stock value will continue to do very well over the next few years. If I had stock in the company, I would KEEP it!

Apple can only go up.

The trade press and mirrored in the mainstream media were numerous reports of the latest products not meeting the expectations of "analysts." Now, in many instances "analysts" can be likened to the ubiquitous "they" so it's virtually impossible to single out any one segment.

It was widely reported the map feature had issues so therefore it was a "disappointment." There were also many reports there wasn't anything "new and innovative" such as SIRI with the 4s. Several members here stated iOS6 wasn't something to get truly excited about and mirrored press comments it was more an incremental upgrade rather than something being "totally new." Public perception, based on the reports was Apple didn't do as well as it had in the past with this product. Another item not widely panned in the press, but hammered in the blogs was the interface connector change. There is a very large aftermarket industry built around the old connector with its outputs that simply aren't in the new connector. This means the clock radio that has a docking station for the 4s and earlier model isn't going to work with the new phone without a not so inexpensive adapter. And believe me, there is literally tons of that stuff out there.

Several major hotel chains, and these are the ones catering to business and not the family have many items in their rooms having a docking interface for the old connector. I don't think a Hilton or a Marriott or Sheraton is going to go through hundreds of thousands of hotel rooms changing out radios or other items just so the iPhone 5 or newer iPad can be used. There's just too much of the old connector items still out and in daily use. And that means the business traveler is going to have to pack that $30 adapter in their luggage. After leaving one or two behind, I think the majority will either begin to question if it is worth the "hassle" to bring their iPod along - and that impacts upgrade sales down the road.

The aftermarket actually drives a lot of sales as their products do increase the usability of a device. The connector change is major. In one fell swoop Apple alienated literally billions of dollars of accessories. The interface connector change isn't the same as cell phone providers changing charger connections. Chargers are provided with these devices and replacements are readily available and inexpensive. A high-end speaker system docking an iPhone or iPod can be several hundred and the new connector means it's severely crippled as features from the old connector aren't present in the new 8 pin design.

Will Apple recover from this? It's very probable but their reputation has been tarnished in some eyes and that resentment is part of what's reflected in their falling stock price.

Time to do some dollar-cost averaging on appl.

flaco, here's one 'experts' viewpoint and a not so rosy one at that.

http://tinyurl.com/bb8bqgq

Don't panic. Check the history of Apple stock. They have had several drops before having some big gains. I think the new iPad Mini affected the stock as it did not sell as well as Apple expected. When the Kindle Fire HD sells for more than $100 less than the Mini, people aren't that impressed. Now the shortage of the iPhone 5 helped Apple to drop market share as well in the cell phone area. But wait another week or two when they will be available again and you will see a surge as people will be scrambling to get their hands on the iPhone 5. I do think that since Jobs is gone that Apple will suffer as far as coming out with new and innovative products. I think Jobs was a big influence in that regard.

The same thing was said years ago about Motorola: "They've never lost money since they existed, etc." Now it's been split in pieces, parts have been absorbed by other companies, some large, some you had not heard of before, and most of the remnants are not worth much.

Any company is at risk to collapse one day. Most of the time it goes down the drain for years before people really accept it's not a temporary low.

Bottom line: It's impossible to really forecast with certainty. If it was, many people would be even richer than they are....

What would Forrest Gumpp Say??

Over the past few years there have been many that have failed when operating from a perceived position of strength. In just the Technology market we've seen Novell, WordPerfect, Borland, Nextel, Rim, Motorola and many others. Corning almost bit the dust after the dotcom boom because it had moved ts production facilities from its core products to fiber and heavily invested in still more plants for producing fiber which almost couldn't be given away. Kodak is another that just couldn't keep up with the the changing landscape, Northern Telecom, AT&T boy, the list keeps going.

Apple is too slow innovating these days. Without Steve Jobs at home to drive innovation, the market is taking over and better product from competitors are winning market share.

I disagree with that blanket statement. I believe what you will see is a shift in how products are designed at Apple. Jobs championed the clean minimalist look with soft features. I think Apple will shift away from some of that by adding more buttons to their devices and you will begin to see more hard edges. But then that's my opinion.

Apple should do just fine.

There is a recent article out discussing that Apple stores are too crowded. What a problem to have.

Just remember not too long ago the Blackberry had as much demand for their products (blackberry who?).

I can also cite RCA, Phillips, Muntz, Sony, Panasonic and Sharp, American and Japanese TV brands that at one time or another also dominated the market.

Sometimes even the best companies have problems and history is replete with examples. Check out this article comparing apple with RCA stock.

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/app...

Apple has always been an innovator and needs to stay that way unless they become a manufacture with competitively price products like everyone else.

They have made a couple of mistakes lately but they won’t hurt Apple too much in the long run. However it may be more complicated with the new iPhone 5 connector though. Nikon have not changed their lens mount design in over 50 years since the good old film days. Astoundingly, a 50 year-old Nikkor can still be used with their latest digital DSLR. Now this is a good design, IMHO.

If the mantra of Steve Jobs lives on, Apple will become, or stay, in the class of Oreo, Kleenex and Crescent Wrench.

Blackberry was successful because it filled a void, but others have come along with a better mousetrap.

This is only a good stock to grow an investment; however the current cost is pretty high to buy in at this point and not worth it.

Honestly, I do hope Apple (and Android, and even Microsoft) stick around because variety and choice in operating systems is a GOOD thing

(Pretty much Blackberry and WinMo were dominant once upon a time but tended to go for different user sets--and things kind of stagnated until iOS and Android came along. Now, to me, it seems that iOS and Android competing with each other is giving some healthy competition (and keeping each other honest) )

I don’t think hope is a good strategy when it come to investing in the market, many have lost their shirts on hope

The reason could be that they keep releasing updates to old ideas. Their mini is a "me too" answer to other mid sized tablets. Nothing fresh appears to be on the horizon since SJ's passing and could be that the innovation shelf is dried up.

http://9to5mac.com/2012/11/19/aapl-up-5-today-as-analyst-cal...

http://www.businessinsider.com/topeka-on-apple-selloff-insan...

As of 11:17AM EST, AAPL @ 554.23 - already better than your tag.

The problem with Apple is their phones and tablets are no better than many of the new offerings from other manufacturers. Especially for phones from Samsung and Motorola... I am still waiting for someone to clarify for me what makes an IPhone better than any of the other new phones other than it is an Iphone....

I think it is the apple on the back of everything that is a status symbol for some people that feel the need to try to impress others with what they own.

I have used their tablets and phones and can not figure out anything that is worth paying any additional money to get.

This will likely cause fewer iPhones to be sold in the future(in my opinion).

http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/tech/Cell-Phone-Database-Takes-Ai...

It is a sign of the times

I worked at Motorola years ago and I can tell you that human interface consistency and ease of use was an afterthought with the result dependent on which engineers were working on the specific product at the time. Many products = many interfaces. You would have thought Android unified them all but then somehow somebody decided Motoblur was better (may be, but this is not the point.) And that is before the carrier have their own opinion on what it should be.
Apple works the other way around and THAT's what has made them superior and more successful. Should they loose that even a little and they're doomed.

Beats me..............

The sad thing about this is before data became the big revenue driver for the cellular carriers they used to have this very same database. I managed the cell phone inventory for a major city government about 12 years ago. When a phone was reported lost or stolen we (I) could call that carrier and have service stopped and the ESN blacklisted. Blacklisting then meant that it couldn't be reactivated without a clearance from our office. If one was found that the carrier had reactivated the carrier was put on notice a repeat would result in their suspension from our contracts for 90 days. That meant no new service would be activated on that carrier and the request would be funneled to another carrier under contract. With over 5000 phones it was a lot of clout.

With the shift from Blackberry as the "smartphone" of choice to offerings by AT&T, Verizon and Sprint that surfed the net and did email, those databases were quietly done away with.

2 months later... it is below $490 (as of now). Will history repeat? I think so.

There will be volatility in wake of some analysts rather surreal reporting late last week in regard to parts orders for the iPhone5 - the same screen part is in the iPod touch, yet the analysts fail to note that, and attribute any changes Apple may make to their ordering plans only to the iPhone... it has been suggested there's some stock manipulation going on... and of course they report this when Apple is in the SEC rules mandated period when Apple can not comment on anything in advance of their earnings report next week... how convenient...

Long term != 11 days

anyway... I don't have AAPL. Don't care if it goes up or down but I think it will go down.

http://www.imore.com/when-apple-doomed-rumors-dont-match-mat...?

Still holding but I am folding at $450.

Like worrying that the winning margin of an undefeated team is not as large as it has been, or worrying that Usain Bolt doesn't set a new record every time he runs.

Apple has had meteoric rise in stock price the past year with the two spikes, and rises like that are usually unsustainable, things then correct and normalize, and continue the desirable modest, average steady growth.

How is Surface doing? ... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/microsoft-surface-e...

There was just too much chatter almost immediately after the release of the iPhone5 about the next iPhone coming out very soon. That probably has people sitting on the sides waiting.

but taking the Apple investment risk is likely to go in your favor, at least for a while. Sometime in the future it will be passed over, but not likely soon. Apple counts on innovation it keep potential buyers interested. And they're still innovating! Coming up this year will be fingerprint identifying button on the iPhone. And more colors. And probably lower prices. My 2 cents worth.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57564237-37/iphone-5s-low-...

There has been talk about how the i5 has been behind expectations. Well, the i5 is still doing better than previous versions, by far. So if the i5 is behind expectations, then the expectations are defective. The iPhone still continues to grow.

Is that only for iPhone expectations, or does your statement apply to tech expectations in general?

On what your risk tolerance is. Me? I would hold on to it a while longer.

I mentioned i5 three times.

Ya, I noticed. So, in your opinion when an iProduct fails to meet expectations it's a problem with the expectations, but when any other product (like, say, a Surface tablet) fails to meet expectations it's just a bad product. Is that correct?

The expectations games played by the financial services industry are played company by company - analyst by analyst, and are capricious at best. Apple is judged like no other company in their industry, or any other company - period. And this is all before the cadre of folks that simply hate Apple no matter what chime in. No matter what Apple reports for earnings next week, they will be pilloried. If they miss even the company's estimates, they'll get crapped on. If they beat estimates - they'll get crapped on because they didn't beat them by a big enough margin. Haters gotta hate.