When Will Autonomous Semi Trucks Reach Industrial Scale?
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According to this article, there are currently only four states that allow testing/deploying of autonomous semi's: California, Texas, Arizona, and Michigan. It's been awhile since I've been in any of these states - are you actually seeing these vehicles on the highways there?
The article says Aurora technologies will build 20 trucks a week - 1,000 per year. But they also say, "That certainly puts them on the path to commercial viability. Commercial viability does not translate to selling trucks at an industrial scale." And they add, "Getting 1000 new autonomous trucks on the road next year is not industrial scale. In 2025, U.S. Class 8 truck sales totaled about 209,000 units. And 2025 was a down year."
They conclude: "In short, it looks like 2028 is the year autonomous trucks reach industrial scale, a scale where thousands of trucks are produced a year, not a few hundred. Thereafter, further scaling may depend upon the regulatory and legislative process."
I remember during the COVID supply-chain crisis, there was a lot of reporting of truck-driver shortages, with fathers saying their sons weren't interested in the business. Is there still a shortage today?
Seems like it's only a matter of time before we start seeing these self-driving trucks everywhere.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2026/08/21/when-wil...
I thought i read
These autonomous big rigs were going to only be allowed in interstates up to the transitions.
In otherworldly, a real person ( legally licensed or not ) would be required to drive / navigate the truck to the "on-ranp [ on transition ]" then turn the autonomous vehicle lose to terrorize the unsuspecting driving public.
Then, wnen these things reach their destinations, once again the truck would only be allowed the take the "off-ramp [ exit transition ] to the end of the transition where once again a real person ( legally licensed or not ) would be required to drive / navigate the truck to the final destination.
Personally, I think these things need special markings / lighting so the driving public knows these terrifying devices are around us!
But, what would I know?
Never argue with a pig. It makes you look foolish and it anoys the hell out of the pig!
Maybe not so terrifying
Personally, I think these things need special markings / lighting so the driving public knows these terrifying devices are around us!
Current evidence from autonomous driving cars is that, while the software causes some problems, it saves others, for a considerable net benefit in safety. I don't expect that relationship to come out differently for big rigs.
personal GPS user since 1992
On second thought
Deleted
Never argue with a pig. It makes you look foolish and it anoys the hell out of the pig!